Like many of you, I’ve felt the weight of these turbulent times—not just intellectually, but physically and emotionally. As I’ve explored how history moves in cycles, I’ve started to wonder: What does this mean for our health? For mine?
We often think of history’s great crises as events we live through. But perhaps they also live in us, shaping our bodies, our minds, and our communities in ways we don’t always see. This idea grew from that reflection—a recognition that I, too, am part of these patterns, and that perhaps by understanding them, we can better care for ourselves and each other.
Do Societal Cycles Shape Our Health? A Research Idea for Generational Science
Throughout history, humanity has faced periods of stability and upheaval—times when societies flourish, and times when they seem to teeter on the edge. We know that major crises—wars, economic collapses, and revolutions—take a toll on public health. But what if these crises aren’t just isolated events? What if they follow recurring patterns that we can map, and what if those patterns leave measurable marks on our collective well-being?
This piece proposes a research idea that bridges historical cycles and human health. It invites collaboration from historians, social scientists, epidemiologists, demographers, and anyone interested in exploring how generational patterns of crisis may shape the health of entire populations.
The Generational Framework: The Four Turnings
Authors William Strauss and Neil Howe introduced the concept of the four turnings—a recurring cycle of generational moods and societal conditions that unfolds roughly every 80–100 years. In this model:
- The First Turning (High) is a time of strong institutions and social cohesion.
- The Second Turning (Awakening) challenges conformity and sparks cultural renewal.
- The Third Turning (Unraveling) sees institutions weaken and individualism rise.
- The Fourth Turning (Crisis) is a period of upheaval—major wars, depressions, revolutions—where society restructures itself.
We are arguably living through such a Fourth Turning today.
The Health Hypothesis
Periods of societal crisis correspond to peak collective stress. It seems plausible that this stress has biological consequences:
- Older generations, already burdened by age-related vulnerabilities, may suffer disproportionately during Fourth Turnings. This could manifest as higher mortality rates or accelerated health decline.
- Younger generations, especially those in childhood or adolescence during these periods, may carry long-term effects of early-life stress. These could include higher risks of chronic diseases, mental health challenges, or reduced lifespan due to what some call “weathering” or “biological scarring.”
If such patterns exist, they might appear repeatedly in history, following the cycle of turnings.
What We Could Study
This hypothesis suggests several lines of inquiry:
- Do mortality rates among elder generations consistently rise during Fourth Turnings compared to their counterparts in more stable periods?
- Are individuals who were children or adolescents during Fourth Turnings at higher risk for chronic diseases, mental health issues, or early mortality later in life?
- Can we trace demographic signatures—such as compressed lifespans or shifts in population pyramids—linked to Crisis periods?
- Are there biological markers of chronic stress (e.g., cortisol dysregulation, inflammation-related conditions) that show generational patterns tied to these cycles?
Why This Matters
Understanding how societal cycles affect population health could help us:
- Predict public health challenges during future crises and plan interventions.
- Identify vulnerable groups and design targeted resilience strategies.
- Test or refine generational cycle models using empirical health data.
Such research could unite history, sociology, demography, psychology, and medicine in a truly interdisciplinary effort.
A Call for Collaboration
This is not a finished theory—it’s a starting point. I offer this idea in hopes it sparks interest among those with the expertise to explore it in depth. If you’re a researcher, analyst, or student interested in generational cycles and health, I invite you to consider how we might work together to test these ideas.
References & Context
- William Strauss & Neil Howe, The Fourth Turning (1997)
- Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord (2016)
- Kaiser Permanente Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACE) Study
- Framingham Heart Study (longitudinal health data)
If you’re a researcher interested in this idea, I’d love to hear from you. Please feel free to reach out or share your thoughts.